WALLY'S WINTER/HURRICANE WEATHER PAGE 2016-2017
HERE for official (National Weather Service)
Sunday - Sept. 17, 2017 - 3:30 pm
- STORM IMPACT CHANCES:
- 48-72 Hrs.
- 48-72 Hrs.
- 3-5 Days
- 3-5 Days
- 6-10 Days
- 6-7 Days
OF ANY SNOW IN
THE NEXT TWO WEEKS
S = snow showers
F = snow flurries
- PAIR OF HURRICANES THREATEN US EASTERN SEABOARD
Storms named Jose and Maria are coming in off the Atlantic.
Euro model has been just about the best this year. And, it this morning
showed that Jose is more of a threat to the far NE US.
And, Maria might come into NC toward us, something the GFS has shown for days. But, this is WAY too far out in time.
So, it showed for Maria, storm in NC moving north toward our region.
now, it projects it moving OFF THE COAST moving north. In fact Jose and
Maria end up at exactly the same place at two different times:
Off Virginia - Jose. Then later Maria:
Exactly the same place. I hope both do stay away from the US. There is
actually more threat for a New York City very serious and bad strike.
I do have to say that the main Candian model this morning showed a full
strike on the SC coast with the storm going to Charlotte, and Danville,
through just east of Roanoke.
But, as I said--there's plenty of
time to see future trends. You see, it's just not time to shut down our
watching of the tropics.
Meanwhile, we are in for a sustained
warm and rather humid conditions. Get ready for 80s and low to mid 60s.
Indian Summer already?
Oh, my op-ed (editorial) in The Roanoke Times came out recently. You can see it here:
given as is ... with no warranty of any kind. It is
for entertainment purposes only. Any action
regarding life or property should be contingent on
the official forecast of the National Weather
Service, an agency of the U.S. Government.
Only the National Weather Service is the source of official
forecasts ... not the Weather Channel,
Accuweather, Weatherbug, WSI [which many TV stations use] or any
other private group.
CLIMATE NOTE - Kinda for fun. Just givin' some facts.MIGHT (SHOULD) WE KICK OUT SOME OF THE BEST SCIENTIFIC MINDS?
are more calls by climate alarmists to de-frock man-caused climate change skeptics of their
credentials. Accordingly, these skeptics are
touted as vitual quacks that should be drummed out of the scientific
community. Yes, kicked out of the scientific community. Seriously!
Do the following guys sound like quacks to you? I
sure would hate to lose the great contributions they've made to modern
science. This is just a short and very partial example list of scientists who
USED TO fully believe in man-cause global climate change, who have totally reversed their position to now being "skeptics."
- Ivar Giaevar: Nobel Laureate in Physics, Member National Academy,
Norwegian Academy of Science and Letters, Professor Emeritus, Rensselaer
Polytechnic Institute, Professor at Large, University of Oslo.
- Freeman Dyson: Distinguished theoretical physicist and mathematician
who played a key role in the development of quantum electrodynamics and
mathematical methods of quantum field theory. But he also maintained a
strong interest in applied science and was one of the designers of the
hugely successful TRIGA nuclear research reactor. Freeman spent most of
his career at the Princeton Institute for Advanced Study. Member
- William Happer: An experimental physicist who spent most of his
career at Princeton and Columbia Universities. He is the inventor of the
sodium guide star that is used in most big modern telescopes to
compensate for atmospheric turbulence with adaptive optics. He was a
pioneer of medical magnetic resonance imaging with laser polarized noble
gases. He served as the Director of Energy Research at the US
Department of Energy from 1990 to 1993. Member National Academy.
- James Lovelock: Fellow of the Royal Society, President of the Marine
Biological Association, Honorary Visiting Fellow of Green Templeton
College, Oxford, Commander of the Order of the British Empire.
- Daniel Kleitman: Professor of Applied Mathematics at MIT and former chair of the Department of Mathematics at MIT.
- Edward Teller: He was a co-founder of Lawrence Livermore National
Laboratory (LLNL), and was both its director and associate director for
many years. Known as father of the H-bomb. Member National Academy. He
died in 2003.
- Robert Adair: Former Chair Department of Physics and director of the
Division of Physical Sciences, Yale University. Member National
the global temp has continued to fall lately, to about .2 above normal.
A recent paper came out that points out that a lack of major volcanoes
in the last 20 years is unusual. And, that alone can account for .2
degrees above normal due to the lack of particulates that occur with
volcanoes. Here is the latest graph (the black line is global):
supposed to be near .9 degress by now according to climate models
presented. Right now, we're hugging .2. You decide.
You can send any comments to email@example.com or
Canadian HRDPS - very local high res model
consulted, sometimes used as abbreviated:
- GFS - Global Forecast
System - Main US-ran global model - longest range (to 16
days). Recently updated with much higher resolution.
- NAM + Parallel NAM -
North America Mesoscale - Regional, not global model.
- NAM/WRF + Parallel - High res model (parallel is even higher res)
- ECMWF - European model, including ensembles (EPS) and weeklies, etc.,
- UKMET - British model
- NAVGEM - New Navy model
(replaced NOGAPS, older one)
- RAP - Rapid Refresh
Model (short term run hourly, covers up to 21 hours now)
- HRRR + experimental HRRRX - High Res Rapid Refresh (very high zoom, updated every
hour, also for limited number of hours projection)
- DGEX - an acronym for the Downscaled GFS with Eta Extension. DGEX
has been developed as an interim solution to providing high-resolution
forecast guidance for populating the digital forecast database at
extended forecast projections. It is produced by
running the full 12-km, 60 level, Eta model from forecast hour 78 to
forecast hour 192 using lateral boundary conditions
- Canadian GEM and RGEM - Global and regional models. Plus CanSIPs monthlies.
SREF - Short Range
QBO - Quasi-Biennial Oscillation
- NDFD - National Digital
- FIM9 - New experimental US model using hex high res grid. Supposed to replace the GFS eventually.
- There are other models such as the Brazilian, German, French, and Japanese (JMA)
- I also consult CFSv2 (Climate Forecasting System) for long range
- I do not have BUFKIT.
- WX - Weather
- NCEP - National Center
for Environmental Prediction (Nat'l Headquarters of the Nat'l Weather
- HPC - Hydrological
Prediction Center (National prediction office of NWS)
- CONUS - Continental US
- PCPN - Precipitation
- SYS - System
- NE - northeast, SE -
southeast, NNW north-north-west, etc.
- NAO - North Atlantic
Oscillation (negative suggests cold east US)
- AO - Arctic Oscillation
(negative suggests cold east US)
- PNA - Pacific
North-Atlantic Oscillation (positive suggests stormier east)
- EPO - Eastern Pacific
- WPO - Western Pacific
- Madden-Julian Oscillation (a cycle of precip-temps based on certain
trade winds/currents). There are eight phases. Some of the
may be of different effect, depending on season.
- SOI - Southern
- GENERAL CURRENT SNOWFALL MAPS:
HERE for graphic of north Mid-Atlantic snowdepth
HERE for general USA snowdepth (Air Force)
- CLICK for 1-day snow accumulation for Virginia NC WV
- CLICK for snowdepth
for Virginia NC WV
- CLICK for month to date
snowfall for VIRGINIA
- CLICK for season to
date snowfall for VIRGINIA
This page is just for fun, and my forecast, may vary from the National
Weather Service by quite a bit a times. There is no liability assumed
for anything resulting from this page. Do not use this page to plan
anything. Refer to official National Weather Service forecasts for
responsible action. I studied some meteorology at The Florida State
University School of Meteorology and do study various models and
internal weather service discussions, and was fully trained in surface
weather observation as an ASOS augmenter in preparation for working at
a surface weather station. In any case, any forecast on this page which
is more than 8-12 hours old should be disregarded as out-of-date. If
you have any comments, leave me e-mail.
To e-mail me click button:
- to HOME PAGE