CLICK HERE for official (National Weather Service) forecast.

Sunday - Sept. 17, 2017 -  3:30 pm


Other Winter Precip

48-72 Hrs.
48-72 Hrs.
3-5 Days
3-5 Days
6-10 Days 
6-7 Days

S = snow showers    F = snow flurries


Storms named Jose and Maria are coming in off the Atlantic.

The Euro model has been just about the best this year. And, it this morning showed that Jose is more of a threat to the far NE US.
And, Maria might come into NC toward us, something the GFS has shown for days. But, this is WAY too far out in time.

So, it showed for Maria, storm in NC moving north toward our region.


But now, it projects it moving OFF THE COAST moving north. In fact Jose and Maria end up at exactly the same place at two different times:


Off Virginia - Jose. Then later Maria:


Wow. Exactly the same place. I hope both do stay away from the US. There is actually more threat for a New York City very serious and bad strike.

And, I do have to say that the main Candian model this morning showed a full strike on the SC coast with the storm going to Charlotte, and Danville, through just east of Roanoke.

But, as I said--there's plenty of time to see future trends. You see, it's just not time to shut down our watching of the tropics.

Meanwhile, we are in for a sustained warm and rather humid conditions. Get ready for 80s and low to mid 60s. Indian Summer already?


Oh, my op-ed (editorial) in The Roanoke Times came out recently. You can see it here:

Check back.

This forecast is given as is ... with no warranty of any kind. It is for entertainment purposes only. Any action regarding life or property should be contingent on the official forecast of the National Weather Service, an agency of the U.S. Government. Only the National Weather Service is the source of official forecasts ... not the Weather Channel, Accuweather, Weatherbug, WSI [which many TV stations use] or any other private group.



CLIMATE NOTE - Kinda for fun. Just givin' some facts.

There are more calls by climate alarmists to de-frock man-caused climate change skeptics of their credentials. Accordingly, these skeptics are touted as vitual quacks that should be drummed out of the scientific community. Yes, kicked out of the scientific community. Seriously!
Do the following guys sound like quacks to you? I sure would hate to lose the great contributions they've made to modern science. This is just a short and very partial example list of scientists who USED TO fully believe in man-cause global climate change, who have totally reversed their position to now being "skeptics."
  • Ivar Giaevar: Nobel Laureate in Physics, Member National Academy, Norwegian Academy of Science and Letters, Professor Emeritus, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Professor at Large, University of Oslo.
  • Freeman Dyson: Distinguished theoretical physicist and mathematician who played a key role in the development of quantum electrodynamics and mathematical methods of quantum field theory. But he also maintained a strong interest in applied science and was one of the designers of the hugely successful TRIGA nuclear research reactor. Freeman spent most of his career at the Princeton Institute for Advanced Study. Member National Academy.
  • William Happer: An experimental physicist who spent most of his career at Princeton and Columbia Universities. He is the inventor of the sodium guide star that is used in most big modern telescopes to compensate for atmospheric turbulence with adaptive optics. He was a pioneer of medical magnetic resonance imaging with laser polarized noble gases. He served as the Director of Energy Research at the US Department of Energy from 1990 to 1993. Member National Academy.
  • James Lovelock: Fellow of the Royal Society, President of the Marine Biological Association, Honorary Visiting Fellow of Green Templeton College, Oxford, Commander of the Order of the British Empire.
  • Daniel Kleitman: Professor of Applied Mathematics at MIT and former chair of the Department of Mathematics at MIT.
  • Edward Teller: He was a co-founder of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), and was both its director and associate director for many years. Known as father of the H-bomb. Member National Academy. He died in 2003.
  • Robert Adair: Former Chair Department of Physics and director of the Division of Physical Sciences, Yale University. Member National Academy.

Meanwhile, the global temp has continued to fall lately, to about .2 above normal. A recent paper came out that points out that a lack of major volcanoes in the last 20 years is unusual. And, that alone can account for .2 degrees above normal due to the lack of particulates that occur with volcanoes. Here is the latest graph (the black line is global):


We're supposed to be near .9 degress by now according to climate models presented.  Right now, we're hugging .2. You decide.



You can send any comments to wmayo444@cox.net or see me!

*Models consulted, sometimes used as abbreviated:
GFS -  Global Forecast System - Main US-ran global model - longest range (to 16 days). Recently updated with much higher resolution.
NAM + Parallel NAM -  North America Mesoscale - Regional, not global model.
NAM/WRF + Parallel - High res model (parallel is even higher res)
ECMWF - European model, including ensembles (EPS) and weeklies, etc., 
UKMET - British model
NAVGEM - New Navy model (replaced NOGAPS, older one)
RAP - Rapid Refresh Model (short term run hourly, covers up to 21 hours now)
HRRR + experimental HRRRX - High Res Rapid Refresh (very high zoom, updated every hour, also for limited number of hours projection)
DGEX - an acronym for the Downscaled GFS with Eta Extension.  DGEX has been developed as an interim solution to providing high-resolution forecast guidance for populating the digital forecast database at extended forecast projections.  It is produced by running the full 12-km, 60 level, Eta model from forecast hour 78 to forecast hour 192 using lateral boundary conditions
Canadian GEM and RGEM - Global and regional models. Plus CanSIPs monthlies.
Canadian  HRDPS - very local high res model
SREF - Short Range Ensembles
NDFD - National Digital Forecat Database
FIM9 - New experimental US model using hex high res grid. Supposed to replace the GFS eventually.
There are other models such as the Brazilian, German, French, and Japanese (JMA)
I also consult CFSv2 (Climate Forecasting System) for long range
I do not have BUFKIT.
*Other abbreviations used:
WX - Weather
NCEP - National Center for Environmental Prediction (Nat'l Headquarters of the Nat'l Weather Service)
HPC - Hydrological Prediction Center (National prediction office of NWS)
CONUS - Continental US
PCPN - Precipitation
SYS - System
NE - northeast, SE - southeast, NNW north-north-west, etc.
NAO - North Atlantic Oscillation (negative suggests cold east US)
AO - Arctic Oscillation (negative suggests cold east US)
PNA - Pacific North-Atlantic Oscillation (positive suggests stormier east)
EPO - Eastern Pacific Oscillation
WPO - Western Pacific Oscillation
MJO - Madden-Julian Oscillation (a cycle of precip-temps based on certain trade winds/currents). There are eight phases. Some of the eight may be of different effect, depending on season.
SOI - Southern Oscillation Index
QBO - Quasi-Biennial Oscillation

CLICK HERE for graphic of north Mid-Atlantic snowdepth
CLICK HERE for general USA snowdepth (Air Force)
CLICK for 1-day snow accumulation for Virginia  NC   WV
CLICK for snowdepth for Virginia  NC  WV
CLICK for month to date snowfall for VIRGINIA
CLICK for season to date snowfall for VIRGINIA

DICLAIMER AND COMMENT: This page is just for fun, and my forecast, may vary from the National Weather Service by quite a bit a times. There is no liability assumed for anything resulting from this page. Do not use this page to plan anything. Refer to official National Weather Service forecasts for responsible action. I studied some meteorology at The Florida State University School of Meteorology and do study various models and internal weather service discussions, and was fully trained in surface weather observation as an ASOS augmenter in preparation for working at a surface weather station. In any case, any forecast on this page which is more than 8-12 hours old should be disregarded as out-of-date. If you have any comments, leave me e-mail.

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