WALLY'S WINTER WEATHER PAGE 2016-2017

CLICK HERE for official (National Weather Service) forecast.

November 20, 2017 -  8 am

CHANCE OF SNOW:

Other Winter Precip

0%
TODAY-TONIGHT
0%
TODAY-TONIGHT
0%
TOMORROW
0%
TOMORROW
0%
48-72 Hrs.
0%
48-72 Hrs.
0%
3-5 Days
0%
3-5 Days
0%
6-10 Days 
0%
6-10 Days
CHANCE OF ANY SNOW IN
THE NEXT TWO WEEKS
5% 

S = snow showers    F = snow flurries

TAME WEEK AHEAD - DRY

No precip shows up on the GFS (US) model until about December 1. We should be dry but generally cool this week. No frigid weather is in sight.

Again, you can see the storm tracks for a La Nina winter, and this winter has a strong La Nina (cold) current off western S. America. In fact, the only low pressure tracks we've had and are projected for a while is the most northern arrow way up in Canada. The other white arrows farther south may show up later on, but all those are not conducive tracks for snow. Now, that being said, there is still a chance for a varying and "offbeat" track leading to snow. But, the overall trend seems to be strongly set for now.

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Otherwise, there's not much to highlight, other than we will actually be in a rather chilly regime. Not super cold or frigid (yet), but also not warm either. If that sustains into December (likely), and precip returns. Yikes, ice is still a possible threat.

BTW, something unusual has happened to the overall average global temperature. It has fallen almost back to normal: +0.119 degrees as observed during the last week. We have seen as high as .8 to 1.5 above normal within the last 2-3 years. We used to get excited when it would fall downward to near +.4 degrees. Remember, I pointed out that one study showed that the lack of big volcanic eruptions can account for a .2 raise in global temps -- temporarily higher, because such volcanoes WILL erupt eventually, and maybe soon. Low Solar periods (as now) tend to be associated with more volcanic eruptions (vulcanism). So, if we had seen another Penatubo or Mt. St. Helens, etc. in the last year by chance, we could actually have been BELOW normal globally right now?! (.119 minus .2)

So, in 2016 we had plenty of orange (above normal) across the globe:

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Now we see a lot more blue (colder):

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... especially S. Am. and west, Antarctica, eastern Asia, and northern N. America, even more of Africa. I'm not saying the average won't go back up. I'm just glad we're not punching through 1.0 degrees above normal globally. (We were supposed to be 1.5 or more according to some theoretical climate models put out there).

Check back!

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WINTER OUTLOOK

Our summer was cool, and I predicted a warm fall, which was very much so until this point. I do think from now into November will be on the chillier side.

As far as winter, the word may be VARIABILITY. More so than usual. And, the important word may be ICE. I expect to see more ice storms in the southeast than usual, and we may end up with one or two ourselves. Things could get rough enough in December this year with ice. This comes from warm air aloft running over pretty cold air at the surface that will sometimes work in. You hear of COLD AIR DAMMING more--where winds from the northeast bank up against the mountains from the easterly side. That happens at the low levels (surface). January may be the milder month, though the ice danger is there, too. Then February turns somewhat colder. March may be more normal, but could have a nice wet snow.

Overall, somewhat milder, but with less snow, because of ice. That makes winter precip predictions difficult, but I am going to go with 12" of snow, but adding in about 2-3" of sleet, and one or two freezing rain events that are possibibly significant.

Get those snow tires on by Thanksgiving--though they won't help much with the ice events!

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Oh, my op-ed (editorial) in The Roanoke Times came out recently. You can see it here:
http://www.roanoke.com/opinion/commentary/mayo-climate-catastrophe-why-are-they-making-it-hard-to/article_624993b0-1e59-5167-8a76-e9a5b42373fc.html

Check back.

This forecast is given as is ... with no warranty of any kind. It is for entertainment purposes only. Any action regarding life or property should be contingent on the official forecast of the National Weather Service, an agency of the U.S. Government. Only the National Weather Service is the source of official forecasts ... not the Weather Channel, Accuweather, Weatherbug, WSI [which many TV stations use] or any other private group.

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CLIMATE NOTE - Kinda for fun. Just givin' some facts.

Just a quick note on Saturday's newpaper article on freezes being later and later due to climate change. Such increases in temperatures as depicted in this article would be on the order of 5-10 degrees Fahrenheit. Right now, the global temp anomaly/departure is a grand .8 degrees F. It largely focuses on the US, especially this year (which is quite above normal compared to almost all recent previous years). It totally ignores the fact that China (a much bigger place than the US) has trended colder over the last decade or two. Sometimes, VERY long range patterns up and lower temps over LARGE areas, due to ocean currents temps, high altitude humidity, etc.
So, we don't need to panic.
BTW, I just saw how one UN agency has now said the arctic will be ice free in summer by 2100. Well, that better than 2012, uh, 2015, uh, 2018, we heard previously. I wonder if that 2100 date will have to be moved eventually.

MIGHT (SHOULD) WE  KICK OUT SOME OF THE BEST SCIENTIFIC MINDS?

There are more calls by climate alarmists to de-frock man-caused climate change skeptics of their credentials. Accordingly, these skeptics are touted as vitual quacks that should be drummed out of the scientific community. Yes, kicked out of the scientific community. Seriously!
Do the following guys sound like quacks to you? I sure would hate to lose the great contributions they've made to modern science. This is just a short and very partial example list of scientists who USED TO fully believe in man-cause global climate change, who have totally reversed their position to now being "skeptics."
  • Ivar Giaevar: Nobel Laureate in Physics, Member National Academy, Norwegian Academy of Science and Letters, Professor Emeritus, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Professor at Large, University of Oslo.
  • Freeman Dyson: Distinguished theoretical physicist and mathematician who played a key role in the development of quantum electrodynamics and mathematical methods of quantum field theory. But he also maintained a strong interest in applied science and was one of the designers of the hugely successful TRIGA nuclear research reactor. Freeman spent most of his career at the Princeton Institute for Advanced Study. Member National Academy.
  • William Happer: An experimental physicist who spent most of his career at Princeton and Columbia Universities. He is the inventor of the sodium guide star that is used in most big modern telescopes to compensate for atmospheric turbulence with adaptive optics. He was a pioneer of medical magnetic resonance imaging with laser polarized noble gases. He served as the Director of Energy Research at the US Department of Energy from 1990 to 1993. Member National Academy.
  • James Lovelock: Fellow of the Royal Society, President of the Marine Biological Association, Honorary Visiting Fellow of Green Templeton College, Oxford, Commander of the Order of the British Empire.
  • Daniel Kleitman: Professor of Applied Mathematics at MIT and former chair of the Department of Mathematics at MIT.
  • Edward Teller: He was a co-founder of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), and was both its director and associate director for many years. Known as father of the H-bomb. Member National Academy. He died in 2003.
  • Robert Adair: Former Chair Department of Physics and director of the Division of Physical Sciences, Yale University. Member National Academy.

This does not include some of the best purely meteorological/climatological minds such as the late Dr. William Gray of Colorado State University, and Joe D'Aleo, co-founder of The Weather Channel (and a past professor of meteorology).

Meanwhile, the global temp has continued to fall lately, to about .2 above normal. A recent paper came out that points out that the lack of major volcanic eruptions in the last 20 years is unusual. And, that alone can account for .2 degrees above normal, due to the lack of particulates that occur with volcanoes. Here is the latest graph (the black line is global):

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We're supposed to be near .9 degress by now according to climate models presented.  Right now, we're hugging .2. You decide.
(The whole scope of the vertical scale is ONE DEGREE!)

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You can send any comments to wmayo444@cox.net or see me!

 
*Models consulted, sometimes used as abbreviated:
GFS -  Global Forecast System - Main US-ran global model - longest range (to 16 days). Recently updated with much higher resolution.
NAM + Parallel NAM -  North America Mesoscale - Regional, not global model.
NAM/WRF + Parallel - High res model (parallel is even higher res)
ECMWF - European model, including ensembles (EPS) and weeklies, etc., 
UKMET - British model
NAVGEM - New Navy model (replaced NOGAPS, older one)
RAP - Rapid Refresh Model (short term run hourly, covers up to 21 hours now)
HRRR + experimental HRRRX - High Res Rapid Refresh (very high zoom, updated every hour, also for limited number of hours projection)
DGEX - an acronym for the Downscaled GFS with Eta Extension.  DGEX has been developed as an interim solution to providing high-resolution forecast guidance for populating the digital forecast database at extended forecast projections.  It is produced by running the full 12-km, 60 level, Eta model from forecast hour 78 to forecast hour 192 using lateral boundary conditions
Canadian GEM and RGEM - Global and regional models. Plus CanSIPs monthlies.
Canadian  HRDPS - very local high res model
SREF - Short Range Ensembles
NDFD - National Digital Forecat Database
FIM9 - New experimental US model using hex high res grid. Supposed to replace the GFS eventually.
There are other models such as the Brazilian, German, French, and Japanese (JMA)
I also consult CFSv2 (Climate Forecasting System) for long range
I do not have BUFKIT.
*Other abbreviations used:
WX - Weather
NCEP - National Center for Environmental Prediction (Nat'l Headquarters of the Nat'l Weather Service)
HPC - Hydrological Prediction Center (National prediction office of NWS)
CONUS - Continental US
PCPN - Precipitation
SYS - System
NE - northeast, SE - southeast, NNW north-north-west, etc.
NAO - North Atlantic Oscillation (negative suggests cold east US)
AO - Arctic Oscillation (negative suggests cold east US)
PNA - Pacific North-Atlantic Oscillation (positive suggests stormier east)
EPO - Eastern Pacific Oscillation
WPO - Western Pacific Oscillation
MJO - Madden-Julian Oscillation (a cycle of precip-temps based on certain trade winds/currents). There are eight phases. Some of the eight may be of different effect, depending on season.
SOI - Southern Oscillation Index
QBO - Quasi-Biennial Oscillation

GENERAL CURRENT SNOWFALL MAPS:
CLICK HERE for graphic of north Mid-Atlantic snowdepth
CLICK HERE for general USA snowdepth (Air Force)
CLICK for 1-day snow accumulation for Virginia  NC   WV
CLICK for snowdepth for Virginia  NC  WV
CLICK for month to date snowfall for VIRGINIA
CLICK for season to date snowfall for VIRGINIA

DICLAIMER AND COMMENT: This page is just for fun, and my forecast, may vary from the National Weather Service by quite a bit a times. There is no liability assumed for anything resulting from this page. Do not use this page to plan anything. Refer to official National Weather Service forecasts for responsible action. I studied some meteorology at The Florida State University School of Meteorology and do study various models and internal weather service discussions, and was fully trained in surface weather observation as an ASOS augmenter in preparation for working at a surface weather station. In any case, any forecast on this page which is more than 8-12 hours old should be disregarded as out-of-date. If you have any comments, leave me e-mail.

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